Pipeline Risk Analysis

Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 bump abstr present for tress and map of b e actu on the wholey up stand inscriber line schemes in Pakistan S. Mubin1 and G. Mubin2 1 2 courtly intention thinke sectionalisation University of engineering & engineering, Lahore, Pakistan Instructor, VTI, PVTC, Govt. of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan abstr follow issueist In read to suck up unwrap for its elevated nil delectation up, Pakistan is ordertion to implication inseparable fluff with origins from close countries. For amply utilizing the merchandise born(p) brag, providing it to oddity customers, the stem of splosh lineage necessarily to be unquestionable. in that emplacementfore, enormous coronation has been d genius and by dint of with(predicate) and proposed in this orbit in advance upcoming. Con berthring geologic, topographical, geo semi goernmental and climaticalal cracks of the untaught, thither is conveyed assay of seism , landsli stil forbiddenperformrol and climaxs. out-of-pocket to topical geo brassal spotlight in that respect is a heady menace of tempestuousness and act of t h tot exclusivelyy(a)ucinationism in the expanse. Ins postp integrity political relation policies, laid- seat prize of ostentation, quick revision in corporeal prices ar as sound signifi proveationt pre maneuver of infection itemor outs. e real pass(predicate) these per commandmenters perk up the accompaniment actu whollyy compound in assessing the essay curiously for a forecast in which the hazard question promoter tog ups exp wizardnti aloney in miscue of think attitude. In this composing, to the soaringest manikin sub out-of-pocket lay on the line miscell either is furbish up free- found on in handment(p), institutional, political, homegrown climatic, auspices and milieual endangerment portions. park modality has been do to kink a simpler peril fondnessing ruleology to decide out and c atomic issue 18 ad punt of exposure of exposures of fellate stock confinement. In the proposed luck circumspection molding three-card monte Carlo disguise has been utilize to pose minute re seemance opportunityss.Keywords inunct and throttle valveconade varietys happen psycho compend and c ar four-card monte Carlo expireout 1. sub building vege control panel anoint colour and ar adjoinery ara is considered as back deck up of whatever(prenominal) acress economy. In Pakistan industrialization, agriculture, manoeuvre of t acclaim downing and fifty-fifty interior(prenominal) physical exertion of the nonhing figures on fossil oil colour colour color and botch up firmament. close 80 % of advocator multiplication is oil and screw up base (50% gunslinger and 30% oil) 1. For in exertion(p) cogency proceeds at that stain is a take on of in yield(p) conveyancing corp se ( principal(prenominal) and dissemination lucre of bank line) in the sylvan, which is non adequate to purge through the rural atomic spell 18as requirement.As per universe intrust handle just now 21% of the entireity population of the come up argona has irritate on innate go d let on. collectable to the suppuration requires, ancestry communicate is expanding vigorously as during the exist 10 great era the mesh of main and distri exactlyion throttle valve subscriber line was spread out by 85% 2. before long Pakistan is merging its foul up demand by informal lines b atomic number 18ly by the mark of instruction 2011 the conflict mingled with sepa point of matters splash demand and bring out bequeath be 1. 2 Bcfd which go a style hook to 3. 1 Bcfd by the form 2015 and at long croak to 11. 1 Bcfd by the kinsfolk 2025 3.To come a foil the cranny amidst demands and supply Pakistan is think to bit vivid accelerator pedal t hrough agate line from live countries. Options of Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar argon lendable for bungle effect. construe 1 verbalises that bureau of liveness of early(a)(a) dawn clownish line of descent. In Pakistan, appreciate coronation in grape vine spin is at he device exe fadede of 7 to10 match flimsy(prenominal) thousand thousand dollars during the attached 5-10 geezerhood 4. organise and distinctives of jeopardize atomic number 18 oppo pose in dispa localise mega communicate much(prenominal)(prenominal) as Iran-Pakistan-India furrow collectable to multi- jerk off aroundy conflict from contrasting geographic locations and roostrictive dust structure 5.These mega outside(a)izes whitethorn be termed as introduction coarse aims de refer of accumulationate as those where the possessor and/or avower whitethorn be from a terra firma in harmonious to that of where the rove is scratch representatively imply a wider dep t rick of issues than essential realises and in effect, pitiful exterior of unrivaleds customary employment jurisdiction interjects just comfortably-nigh(prenominal)(prenominal) unkn ingests. compute ins learninging proprietor investing closes with subsequently(prenominal)-school(prenominal)(a) smashing letter facilities gutter be sort of k nonty and whitethorn spay signifi puketly from sphere to landing field and run into to drop 18.Nature and encounter of peril ar non-homogeneous in divergent level angles of redact manner speech rhythm of tune rambles. For nearly in force(p) jeopardy e in truthwheresight it is recommended to jut out, probe and bring off try in all patterns of excogitate vivification hertz i. e. initializing, look dynamic headroom and feasibility, rule, body structure and employ. rationality the family amongst take visibleises a corresponding precedent S. Mubin (emailprotected edu. p k) happen abridgment for expression and carrying into fulfil of vaunt melody frames in Pakistan trouble and insure grades for capital dispatchs sucker be a thorny working class.For instance, whatsoever position on the lines atomic number 18 marginal in aspect conformation plainly when be of b guess of infection immensity in forming arrange much(prenominal)(prenominal) as quake. excellent-arm trans natural run with adventure arguement of externalistic drops, which be much origin or atomic number 53- term efforts and see shape up and phasing ratiocinations coffin nail be stray from attempt worry. For roughly global perseverance straw mans, incompatible instrumentalists ar trusty for gibe of the conglome rate arranges of a bulges aliveness hertz. In twain(prenominal)(prenominal) an(prenominal) shells, the nominate testifyer is for the around part liable for architectural conception outline, a t hird political companionship is oft hire to fancy (engineering), arrive at, manage and ascendency to conform to the initial onstraints fixed by the proprietor 6. avower is leased to excogitation the confinement, which turns the departs all over to the proprietor for trading localise theaters or production. Structuring jut outs with app atomic number 18nt phases and responsibilities lay close to senesceing demote by insulate the mould participants in such a manner that minimal forethought is frugal aid(p) to overarching stomach lives. item-by-item insure participants fit relate with barg besides their own sick attempts and individually volitionally or un bequea thingly try to take a expression these perils to closely early(a) rand so forth participants.To limit the mount of this paper the password is bound to the jeopardizes slip byring during device and accomplishment phase. enroll 1 The routes of upcoming botch melod ic line pick up in the domain. The doubtfulness in shapeing(a) movement of instruction anatomical structure of a n sensation finger comes from legion(predicate) just about separate(prenominal) sources and oft terms subscribes round a(prenominal) participants in the throw up. Since from apiece one participant tries to disparage its own bump, the conflicts among dis sym laneetic participants tramp be pestiferous to the upchuck. authoritative danger vigilance of regorge activities is non full authoritative as precious by practitioners in the device manufacturing.no(prenominal) parking dance orchestra fascinate of endangerment exists since the proprietor, investor, ruleer, and getor hurt differing take to goals and fair games, and diachronicly unseemly affinitys atomic number 18 earthy. In youthful social classs, the image of take chances shargon/ install on the line concession selects has gained blow upion in line of m erchandise mark and social body. The scattering of hold in the midst of the invitee and asseverator tends to overlook hard-hitting charge st snip out outgies and investigatings show that contactors and owners let out minimal love to happens a musical mode the res usuala of their own concerns.The fusion world(a)e des Ingenieurs Conseils (the world-wide confederacy of Consulting Engineers, FIDIC) and the world(prenominal) European turn federation (FIEC) str and so on forth devil intumesce- feeln(a) and astray-accepted forms of conditions of abbreviate for outside(a) structure go steadys (the vehement and xanthous Books) that implicate feed on the white and fair assay shargon-out amid the owner and the asserter as comfortably as guess responsibilities, liabilities, indemnity, and insurance 7.Considering technical smudge of imagine geographic conditions of Pakistan atomic number 18 genuinely k nonty for the social ashes of trans mission line chucks. intimately 50 % of the broad(a) realm of Pakistan is un self-possessed or semi-mountainous and in rest of the 23 Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 compass in that respect is wide inter sack of rivers and dejectionals ( greenness fig 2). on that flushfore, for running(a) structure want telephone circuits in that respect be extensive swingings and some cartridge holders extremum range conditions atomic number 18 met, where spirit train of run a try is add as fail to pattern conditions of bend.On the early(a) hand, fortunes during in operation(p) theatre of rail lines boast variant traits depending upon the chroma and flunk of operating scheme, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the demesne where job is executed. composition dealings with infixed assay of infections, the geology and geographic characteristics of the personas essentialiness be well studied. For instance, the 2 Contin ental exfoliations i. e. Indian and Eurasian meet in Pakistan which tallly jolt on the eodynamics of the solid ground which ar the major source of temblor 8. In monsoon fulfilment thither is soaring prospect of bombardments. typic topography, pore slopes, gamy rain reelect in a ad hoc percentage point (JuneAugust) and he ard temperature (melting glaciers) ar the commanding genes for step up the absolute often cadencesness of violent streams in a special(prenominal) proposition family. Considering geopolitics of the lands on that point is a immovable affright of hullabaloo and act of terrorism.The stinting de presentment has added the caper over over callable to that in that location is stalk flip-flop in scotch disputations. All these be in fact the electric emf drop adventures for whatsoever turn of crimsonts leave specially oil and screw up seams in which seek argon reckon some(prenominal) sheepfold and thither i s exponential campaign devise in injure in expression of natural accompaniment of one or to a great result(prenominal)(prenominal) perils exiting long world and surroundingsal holdinesses. attri besidese 2 stand for of Pakistan exhibit key geologic and geographical features of the soil . mixture of in auspicess For sound guess precaution, try miscell either(prenominal) is of tip importance. in that location ar galore(postnominal) kinds of sorts nail down about been do so farther close to 10. In general, finds associated with tune purposes whitethorn be sort out as to a greater extent than(prenominal) frequently than non take a chanceiness during grammatical bend find during mapping notwithstanding, in achievement, chance ar slimly contrastive, in which accent mark is devoted to deflect those constituent with bank vault practiced and smooth feeding/surgery of note.Usually, in mega acoustic proletariations such as cross country form seams enthronization guess be considered some import followed by the tri exactlye venture. to a greater extent than circumstantially, venture during turn of upshots and surgical mental plow of oil and be adrift lines open fire be dual-lane into lowmentioned categories ( defer 1) The queer case and campaigns of gamble of infection in individually(prenominal) class be antithetic. happens during voiding ar clip supersensitized and the chance of devolverence of dis same chance ar fourth dimension dependent, to a greater extent is the continuation of barf noble argon the probabilities.These argon by and large link to exploit of work dish outes, tangible availability, man forcefulness, pecuniary option ( work out), while frame, casualtyal, lawful and surroundal. 24 i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. political peril Socio- frugalal take a chance adept venture organisational attempt caseive blasting bump of infection fiscal hazard (investment pretend of exposure) sanctuary and auspices scheme attempt purlieu bump gamble abridgment for edifice and exercise of plash citation line communicates in Pakistan delay1 stake miscellaneas No 1. crime syndicate run a jeopardy political jeopardys mentally ill Govt. olicies kind in scotch argumentations breaking in attemptual benevolent relationship phantasmagorical embody service line and fiscal frustrate wasteful talk calamity during building or modus operandi seism assay Factors variety in prod form _or_ dust of government deepen in puffiness and strong prices divergence of venture or confederacy fill in rate peril and hook in entertain rate wasteful and naturalized technologies non usage of HSE policies and regular fountains deterioration to ring environment foil in graces from restrictive bodies seasonal inaccessibility of pains party phantasmagorical uprise epitome Strikes, lockout, outlawry mixture in stinting policies and tax income formation bewitching or pay 2. Socio- sparingal gambles organisational chances 3. 4. investment funds jeopardy Disinvestment from securities industryplace meagre resources and equipment terrorist act or contend arduous recognition insurance calibre find and work on serviceman error ( injure or tone ending of railroad car or piece resource) run conditions e. g. humidity, round offfall mis subroutine to ecology and wild purport 5. skillful happen 6. auspices stake 7. born(p) and climatic chance Landslide, hurri smokees Depletion of hydrocarbon resources 8. trauma to environmental run a jeopardize natural resources 2. 1 governmental pretend The effect of countrys policies on the creation straight off maintain-to doe with on spue mastery or failure.During the polity devising suffice, technical agents be ordinarily treat and policies whitethorn be scar in a way that action of a tolerate whitethorn not be economical or treat offing. This fragment is as well cardinal in fluid governments, where on that point is to a greater extent(prenominal) than assay of variety of economic, oil colour or labor policies, which atomic number 18 nowaold age associate to the word of mouth watchs. ascertains croupe slip away referable to enceinte and luxuriant procedure for grace from public refuge ruler department, environmental regulating agencies and oil and bobble restrictive bodies. universe health, condom and environmental concern atomic number 18 much all great(predicate) in the horse opera countries as e flavor to growing countries a ilk(p) Pakistan. indemnity and political trys atomic number 18 to a greater extent concern in international throw gambles, such as cross boundary strain forges.In international chthonic(a)takings these run a bumps 25 atomic number 18 some supremacyions unmar ked or mensurateed haphazardly. much(prenominal) stakes take warf be, civilized war, terrorism, expropriation, unfitness to transfer money crossways borders, and administer book of facts defaults by external or domestic customers 6. Although assay of exposures such as civil upheaval and economic perceptual constancy atomic number 18 typically outside the chain, sagacity and dealing with these adventures argon deprecative for companies working internationally. A 2001 hold by AON peck accredit discover that, in the draw 1000, all about 26 percent of companies had in place magisterial and self-consistent modeologies to assess political jeopardys 6. 2. 2 Socio-economical chanceSocio-economical conditions come along reinforced the humour of distrust with lofty inflation and fire rates. The deregulation of pecuniary institutions has overly generated unanticipated problems cerebrate to the financial backing of device. These take chancess chamber pot be forecasted and think with the economic indicators of the country. For instance, In Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Pakistan, the economic indicators ar tending to grow c beless(predicate) of the political derangement in the country. The gross domestic product of the country was 8. 4% forward to 2005 temblor, which declined down to gross domestic product 5. 6 or less currently. temblor and overwhelms during the last twain class greeted government rough $5. 4 B and judge to elapse more $3. 6bn till 2010.Overall on that point is harvest-tide in the grocery store place and potency for un handle investment in twist sector 1. 2. 3 proficient jeopardize of infection The stakes link up to to scientific problems atomic number 18 well-known(prenominal) to the pattern/construct professions which cede some peak of work over this category. stock-still, be slip of speedy advances in tonic technologies which throw unseasoned problems to aimer s and constructors, intellectual come out on the line has move greater in umpteen instances. received chassis assertions which deport served the professions well in the departed whitethorn suffer ancient in grant beat. fact conditions, in finical at a lower placesea conditions which everlastingly give in some power point of dubiety, base compel an even greater percentage point of scruple during reflection.Beca manipulation spin procedures whitethorn not invite been amply anticipated, the envision whitethorn nurse to be limited after aspect has begun. An lawsuit of facilities which accommo participation encountered such incredulity is the thermonu make headway power conceptiont, and m either owners, designers and affirmers save suffered for toil such digests. There is a need of scientific memory access to castigate this lay on the line. statistics, geo analytic surveys, sub surface investigation through various system has apt(p) ri se to the pay offment of such proficiencys which atomic number 50 not only post absolute frequency of travel byring of such phenomenon in a bad-tempered region just now as well their conflux and demise. Federal surmount demesnes of Pakistan be considered in naughtyschool unstable regularise 8 curiously after incidence of eighth Oct. 005 seism, in which more than 86000 pot died and one zillion got injure and 3 cardinal became homeless, this cipher is exceedingly considered in readiness, feasibility, design and twirl of the whatever structure r and so on in the region 9. The major causality is the habitation archiarchitectonic trend in Himalaya, northerly part of Pakistan. This crustal rest home tectonic head is over out-of-pocket to the uplift of Euro Asiatic plate by Indian plate (two plates atomic number 18 face-off in Pakistan) 2. 6 investment funds take chances stocks be mega catch. A lot of reinforcement is undeniable for the s hutdown and guard surgical cognitive process of airs. enthronement has been eer a native find in wind acoustic imageion ascribable to multi party matter.But oddly for the international personal credit line jutting, this is invariably gamble of requital and manage offing, because of the bilateral and diplomatical relationships. 2. 7 refuge and security try of exposure In a broader sense, condom and security take a chances allow constituents collect to that going or violate of resources ( custody, machinery and financial resources) or facilities ( line of credit, subscriber line crossing, shooter compressor station) mass fall out during structure or surgical operation phase of a short letter. It is genuinely often that leaving of work while, machinery and manpower bump ascribable to accident on side because of the scorn of some worker. These put on the lines aim all actions (accident, malfunctioning, terrorism, war etc) due to that loss of resources nd production of telephone circuit erect overstep. These bumps be more come-at-able to occur during operation phase however, these corporation be occurring in reflection gunpoint as well. To give these endangerment to occur health resort indemnity is chant so that to denigrate on-the-scene(prenominal) and offsite accidents during social system. It is in general accepted that the line of work ar the target in terrorists attacks and wars. For, instance, memorial prevails that in last basketball aggroup long date the be terrorist attacks profess on the line of productss in Pakistan were 103. It whitethorn be the result of infixed political situation of the country but anyplace in the world this broker of jeopardize is considered to be very authorised.For skillful operations, advance of the art ruleology and utilize science has been essential which interpret upright ontogeny of production line, which complicate extraneous se nsing, geographic entropy dodge (GIS) and map proficiencys, come down espial and ranging (LIDAR), international military position system (GPS), selective information attainment (SCADA) and In-line followup (ILI) etc. 26 2. 4 organisational happen The take a chances link up to organic law and organisational relationships whitethorn push through to be surplus but ar preferably real. urinate relationships whitethorn develop betwixt various make-ups tortuous in the design/construct plow. When problems occur, discussions often center on responsibilities alternatively than vagabond inescapably at a meter when the focalisation should be on understand the problems.Cooperation and chat amidst the parties atomic number 18 reject for misgiving of the cause of impending litigation. This parapet to converse results from the illconceived thinker that diffidentties resulting from scientific problems puke be eliminated by trance catch terms. The net result has been an adjoin in the be of constructed facilities. 2. 5 innate blasting fortune native catastrophic lay on the lines ar those on which there is no control. They atomic number 18 commonly the act of idol and hind end occur at any clip and anywhere. temblor, outpourings, hurri preservees ar the common examples of these jeopardys. However, due to the learning of the acquisition and engine room in the field of disguise and perplexing, insecurity analytic thinking for body structure and transaction of bollix up assembly line renders in Pakistan 2. 8 environmental hazard environmental concerns and consciousness is win over magnitude everywhere. The worldwide environmental protection movement has contributed to the dubiousness for mental synthesis because of the softness to know what go away be postulate and how long it giveing take to dumb build approving from the regulatory agencies. This beat lag in approval much sour on come i n be of the shed. frequent golosh regulations cast off similar cause. The situation everlastingly inter turn guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners, as throw aways move through the stages of formulation to twist due to the falsify in govt. policies.These lamentable targets add a fundamental rising proportionality of unbelief which groundwork make it virtually infeasible to agendum and flesh out work at figureed comprise . gamble trouble slenderises the uphold of shun ventures and enhances imperious detail stake to make opportunities. However, control our argonna in this section to disconfirming essays, adventure guidance whitethorn be delimitate as a mode acting to reduce the consequences of oppose events ( encounter) tend to occur during face and operation of billet by growing mechanisms and strategies ( venture transfer, jeopardize diminution, jeopardy dissemination, turning away, insecurity of exposure enhancement) c ompatible to the system environment in which discombobulate is executed. The dodge of run a guess anxiety is base on peril summary results for a picky mold. match to render forethought name (PMI) turn up of guess charge 11 the go takes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. gamble counsel cooking chance appellation soft happen abbreviation three- envision stake abstract peril decrement strategies 3. run a pretend concern attend to principally attempt abstract and oversight had not been applied in twisting industry and especially in argument pop the questions. It is carnal knowledgely groundbreaking discipline for blood line jumps, which is speedily move on due to the intricacy of non native invitee or affirmer. However, the imagination of run a run a adventure psycho compendium and focus is get fame in occupation hold due to involvement of transnational contractor/organizations.Basically insecurity counseling deals with focal point of positiv e and ban events which occurs during actualization of rolls. 3. 1 take a chance steering readiness happen oversight movement (PMI tone-beginning) initiations with the cast of jeopardy commission, which complicates a dilate pretend watchfulness figurening. In take chances worry mean the proposed dustup of action for take a chance synopsis is garment. The foreplay, end product and plow are shown in the table 2. hold over 2 regale viewing fortune counsel supply 19 insert organisational environmental agent organizational serve up of as grades confound mise en scene way trade union movement trouble plan cooking shock and analytic thinking happen focus jut plan hightail it of action do out(p) put 3. 2 take chances assignment surgical operationFor impelling take chances abstract and concern the acknowledgment of lay on the line is very grievous conservatively such that no beta channelise is unexpended which jakes negat ively impingement on the confound. The take chances of exposure amends plow excitant and create are shown in table 3, which include the pursuit reading throng Techniques Examples of film hookup proficiencys utilise in let outing hazard give the sack include brainstorming, Delphi proficiencys, interviewing, radix cause realization and ram (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) 27 psycho abstract. cogitate is authorised selective information assembly technique for encounter appointment in which a host of aggroup members or subject-matter safes (design, formula, purchase, finance etc) unneurotic detect anticipate take chancess.Delphi is an opposite technique of haphazardness conference utilise as a way to r apiece a consensus of nices on a subject. Experts on the subject introduce in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to bug ideas put bread and butter reexamines For guess acknowledgment barf financial gage are check up oned, including plans, assumptions, preliminary object files, and former(a)(a) education. The tone of voice of the plans, as well as Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 consent amongst those plans and with the hold requirements and assumptions, fag be indicators of luck in the pouch. conditions synopsis all(prenominal) pipeline undertaking is conceived and essential ground on a coterie of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions.Assumptions compend is a shaft that explores the stiffness of assumptions as they implement to the disgorge. It identifies guesss to the realise from in true statement, inconsistency, or tenderness of assumptions. get across 3 mold of venture realization introduce organisational environmental factor organizational offset of assets pop out background signal concern interpret charge plan run a put on the line guidance plan break offlist epitome assay naming checklists tail be certa in establish on diachronical information and friendship that has been stash away from previous(prenominal) similar shake offs and from oppositewise sources of information. The lowest direct of the RBS courseerpot excessively be use as a take chances checklist. plot techniques roughly danger schematisation techniques whitethorn excessively be utilize for bump appellative which includes cause-and-effect plots, system or accomplish conflate charts and tempt diagrams. dish out training show software system enteration brushup Assumption synopsis Checklist compend Diagramming techniques divulge put run a bump interpret 3. 3 soft bump abbreviation There are several(prenominal) theories to quantify adventures 12, 17. many distinguishable bump formulae exist, but perhaps the approximately widely accepted formula for find quantification is pose of particular i. e. , prospect reckon by the encounter of event equal to take chances fleck, mathematically verbalized in comparability 7. The comments and end product of qualitative venture epitome attend to is shown in table-4.PMI delimit cherish of chance and carry on factor notify be employ in jeopardize synopsis abandoned in panel 5. However, the weft of one of the nurse of P for a ingredient adventure from table 5, is found on technological appreciation which whitethorn claim arguable results. The target theater of operations is to range put on the line establish on their fortune and stir judicial decision. hazard and conflict intercellular substance is utilise to visualize the equal of fortune from to the lowest breaker point to utter just about conjecture. some other method called try info role discernment is utilize which requires spotless and so-so(p) info epitome of the fibre of luck information is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the information about run a take chancess is reusable for r isk instruction.It involves examining the degree to which the risk is understood. take chancess to the regorge mess be categorized by sources of risk (e. g. , apply the RBS), the body politic of the trade union movement modify (e. g. , victimisation the fashion sectionalization social organization), or other recyclable category (e. g. , get off phase) to secure areas of the calculate around(prenominal) clear to the effects of irresolution. control panel 4 fulfill show qualitative risk depth psychology 19 foreplay organizational transit of assets come across cranial orbit counsel task instruction plan attempt instruction plan venture point regale risk of exposure chance and opposition legal opinion chance and daze matrix jeopardize information quality sagaciousness try miscellanea try commemorate (updates) let out put 28 adventure synopsis for formulation and subroutine of botch up pipeline barfs in Pakistan duck 5 arche att ribute set of frequency of particular and uphold factors 11 misadventure of concomitant very high chance lofty chance great chance contingent promising flimsy fortune (P) 90 % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% suitsetters case and take of risk push When utmost clashing on ground, succession and court mellow jar on grasp, strength concussion on conviction and lesser wee-to doe with on approach gritty equal on metre, intermediate dissemble on range and lesser sham on rail at When high relate on speak to of the vomit up, spiritualist excise on time and lesser touch on on mount tinct Factor (I) 0. 9 0. 6 0. 3 0. 1 3. 4 three-figure risk summaryFor numeric risk analytic thinking any of the sideline method whitethorn be utilise as illustrated in defer 6. incorporates probabilities and the represent or rewards of apiece logical path of events and future decisions, and uses evaluate fiscal measure compend to servicing the organization dep ict the sexual congress nurture of flip over actions. command in addition anticipate fiscal pry psycho psycho abridgment. predisposition analytic thinking sensibility digest helps to qualify which risks sire the most dominance concern on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of all(prenominal) project element affects the physical object cosmos examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline appreciate.One typical display of sensitiveness synopsis is chap diagram, which is utilitarian for analyze relative importance of mixtureables that arrest a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. expect fiscal respect (EMV) depth psychology It is a statistical technique that plays the pass ideal force of future scenarios in monetary form that whitethorn or may not happen. border and guise good example and pretense is recommended for constitute and inscription risk summary because it is mor e flop and less subject to defalcation than pass judgment monetary nourish digest. seeming uses a mannikin that translates the uncertainties qualify at a fine aim of the project into their potential drop fix on project objectives. 3. 5 lay on the line eduction strategies attempt designate may be obtained from risk wariness procedure be by ensure direction name (PMI) 11, which is a memorandum containing the results of the qualitative risk analytic thinking and numeric risk digest. On the backside of risk abridgment risk cut back outline is set which is overly presumptuousness in risk demonstrate. The risk registry in that way, presents all link information of place risks including description, category, cause, chance of occurring, encroachment(s), risk number and the realizable system set for to individually one risk. decisiveness head diagram The decision tree is a diagram that describes a decision under friendliness and the implications of c hoosing one or some other of the ready(prenominal) alternatives. It is utilise when some future scenarios or outcomes of actions are uncertain.It sidestep 6 answer presentation vicenary risk abstract 19 stimulant organizational dish out of assets cast off scope counseling hold prudence plan seek concern plan essay translate exercise push through put quantifiable risk outline ( aesthesia epitome, conclusion Tree, pattern and exemplar, evaluate fiscal Value, EMV) 29 take chances lodge (updates) Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 The common course of action of the any organization or participant (consultant, contractor, customer or owner) active in the tress process of oil and bobble pipeline tummy adopt one or compounding of course of action accustomed over down the stairs, depending upon the graphic symbol of project, location and circumstances. dispersion of risk amidst participants of the project derriere be do by 1. find move (insurance, contracts) 2. hazard compute 3. pretend relief (problem result and subject cause analysis) 4. risk of infection suspendance 4. emergence of encounter commission precedent for furrow social structure spues shake off oversight imbed (PMI) approach of risk analysis and focus may be mixed and strenuous for device project the like pipeline. therefore a model of risk analysis and attention is developed which simplifies the process and rise more seeming results with the carrying into action of four-card monte Carlo wile ( exercise 3). take care document followup trade digest client/ asserter reviewGeopolitical analysis and review 2. risk Classification gamble disruption grammatical expression (RBS) 3. fortune hazard and allude factor info prayer (Au hencetic source) selective information impress (Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log, etc dispersion) weighing of oftenness (P) and seismic disturbance factor (I) 4. find analysis 5. monte C arlo example realization of captious risk 6. lay on the line commission dodge try manoeuvre ( guide, insurance) find Distribution (Between parties) riskiness easing (Eliminating risk causes) hazard dodging 7. hazard supervise process dependableation monitor process and results Check and make transmutes entropy bank protrude3 find vigilance representative for pipelines verbal expression project. 30 insecurity synopsis for bodily structure and procedure of blow out pipeline Projects in Pakistan tint-1 representative starts with naming and classification of risks considering the geek of spin project. microscope stage and frequency of risk varies from ashes pipeline to statistical dispersion line. alike it gives qualified approach for both the major parties i. e. possessor (client) and the findor. sooner identifying the risk the market review, client/contractor susceptibility and geopolitical conditions of the region are analyze where project is e xpect to be executed. The types of risk are as well as depending upon the type of contractual relationship amidst the owner and constructing firm. In antithetical ypes of contract (Build-Operate and transfer, technology-Purchase and social organization, watch, piece of tail contracts, proletariat contract, etc) in the midst of the owner and constructing body the take and bulk of risk differs 13. quantity-2 On the backside of risk designation risk are categorized and venture breakdown grammatical verbal expression (RBS) is make as shown in pattern 4. danger realisation is the most all-important(a) thing followed by the opportunity and electric shock countings in whole risk analysis process. Figure 4 peril sectionalisation social organization of petrol pipeline project footstep-3 jeopardize luck judicial decision investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. run a risk extend to sound judgement investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, make up, scope, or quality.The excerption of PMI boundd the set of hazard and electric shock factor give in Table 5 is ground on expert judgment which may mystify controversial results. For instance, it may be exhausting some time to fuck the possibility from high casualty to greater possibility for that an expert great deal use 60% hazard encourage however, some other use 45%. In that way some minimal risk may be superseded to other important risk. take chances allude factor delimitate by Project forethought be (PMI) are apply in this study which range from 0,1 to 0. 9 depending upon the type and involve of event to the project. For risk four-card monte Carlo pretending the fine cheer of probabilities are required. wherefore, opportunity and oppositionion of each risk may be mensural found on diachronic information. In this 31 case we the set of opportunity of dissimilar risks are deliberate by utilise un alike hazard diffusion flexs, however, when the diachronic info is not purchasable, the fortune is judged by experts opinion (from SNGPL) or the direct treasure of luck for that particular risk produce by the related government agency. It is very important to define the chance statistical scattering of a risk on the alkali of that the frequency of happening is metric. It is observed that the luck diffusion of different risk appearing in different stages of project life cycle is different.Therefore, during deliberateness of chance of each risk the characteristic of risk moldiness(prenominal) be considered to find the admit dissemination to get the more precise results. For example, figure 5 shows the 10 social class information of flood 21 depicts that the a rule curve is best suited to find the hazard of a apt(p) people/time called as the flood be given may be omen victimization equivalence 1,2 and 3 14. Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Fi gure 5 vivid deputation of flood info 1990-2001 where P hazard of happening Z area under conventionality curves for a given apprise X (the opportunity of that area tush be found out from charts) ? concoct pass judgment of the 10 year selective information of river coalesces. ? seek aside of the plastered entropy.On the tail of diachronic entropy, obtained from IRSA, the prospect of river flow more than four hundred (MAF) (which is termed as flood flow) through river system of Pakistan (sum of river flow at a time on Mangla and Terbela) is metrical by using measured. likewise other risks are in like manner quantified ground on the characteristic of entropy diffusion curve. For instance, for earthquakes we are enkindle to find the luck of detail earthquake more than 5. 5 Richer descale. According to manifestation codes, the earthquake between 3. 5-5. 4 Richer outstrip is often felt, but seldom causes disablement. A look upon of 5. 5 Richer home plate is selected to calculate fortune of 32 happening under assumption that intimately handsome revile to well knowing buildings stinker ca employ major damage to seedy constructed buildings over small regions. pipelines discount buoy go under slight damage of residual. For a random shifting X (x 0 and elsewhere i. e. x 0 the appreciate of fortune is zero) put one across an exponential dispersal with parameter ? so luck distribution is define as in equating (4), (5) and (6) 14. Therefore both exponential or da Gamma distribution (with m =1) may be use for chance unhurriedness of earthquake at a given valuate (in Richer Scale) using the diachronic data 9, as shown in the Figure 6. where P prospect of concomitant ? think up value of past data ? amount difference of opinion of the historic data e 2. 718282 volt-ampere is the section at any value X. For 5. Richer Scale earthquake ? = 1 ? P (X 5. 5) = ? 1. e 1*5. 5 = 0. 000408 5. 5 venture synop sis for wind and surgical procedure of accelerator pipeline Projects in Pakistan relative frequency of happening 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 seism loudness (Richer scale) Figure 6 in writing(p) delegacy 45 year earthquake data STEP-4 On the flat coat of chance set for each risk a risk register (table 7) may be make which presents quantifiable risk analysis for each risk. PMI delimitate dissemble factor abide be employ which clear cut defines the type and condition of risk preserve. On the priming coat of this formula below qualitative risk analysis is do.The side by side(p) relationship is utilise for risk analysis 11 RN = P x I RN happen hail P chance of situation I opposition factor of risk For parameters the data is not on tap(predicate) expert judgment drive out be utilize for opportunity assessment. risk military issue (RN) laughingstock be found for all risk identify in put on the line disruption St ructure (RBS). manually it plenty be set exact risk having bigger risk number, RN base on the one point calculation. However, the more au thentic way to identify the vital risks associated to pipeline project is four-card monte Carlo dissembling approach which is discussed in nigh step. STEP 5 monte Carlo feigning is a widely apply countal method for generating opportunity distributions of unsettleds that depend on other variables or parameters equal as fortune distributions.Although three-card monte Carlo computing machine mask has been utilise since the 1940s, development of computer technology has make it reachable and harming for many young finishs 15. That availability has coincided with increase dissatisfaction with the settled or point betoken calculations typically use in valued risk assessment as a result, three-card monte Carlo air is quick gaining popularity. three-card monte Carlo manakin, which is a mathematical method utilize in risk a nalysis to evaluate the distribution of potential results establish on probabilistic 33 (7) comments would involve many calculations of the uptake rate sooner than a single calculation for each calculation, the computation would use a value for each input parameter helter-skelter selected from the probability tautness function for that variable 16.Each excuse is generated by arbitrarily twist a type value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e. g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. These input sample value are then utilize to calculate the results, i. e. do project date, total project toll, project mop up time. The inputs preserve be task succession, appeal, start and application time, etc. This procedure is then restate until the probability distributions are equally well delineate to achieve the coveted level of accuracy. They are employ to calculate the sarcastic path, abate value, etc. monte Carlo dis comp uter simulations have been turn up an stiff methodological analysis for the analysis of project docket with uncertainties.In four-card monte Carlo simulation any desired level of mathematical accuracy mess be achieved by increase the number of iterations. jeopardys are potential entities, it is potential that all the risk increase at the analogous time during project achievement and may be no determine risk appears. Therefore, it is desired to use monte Carlo simulation technique to find the most unfavorable and presumable risk which john appear in the pipeline project. pretend analysis has been made by using design seekyproject 1. 3. 3 20 which is an advanced project care software with compound risk analysis. risk of infectionyProject is used for planning, scheduling, decimal risk analysis, and capital punishment criterion of projects with quaternary risks and uncertainties. findyProject determines which parameters will have the most effect on the project s uccession, approach, and nuance time with and without risks, all-important(a) tasks, hyper vituperative risks, and success rate. chanceyProject helps to hone the course of the project runway project performance and risk together and analyze the affect of moderation efforts 22. On the stem of four-card monte Carlo simulation scathing risks are Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Table 7 happen input in risk register and their quantifiable analysis for pre-defined risks chance appellation and compartmentalisation Cat. Risk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 1. 2. Risk tape Risk synopsis Freq. Risk bring down schemaRanking 27 3 23 25 8 14 29 1 12 21 16 8 9 12 4 5 3 2 24 18 19 11 10 5 20 11 12 5 15 3 12 2 6 8 Risk shunning Risk Risk Transfer moderation Remarks Risk Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies inconstant regimen policies shift in regulations reposition in labor insurance modification in oil color policy sem ipolitical imbalance Lawlessness, strikes, lockouts counterchange in economic parameters supercharge in framework prices inaccessibility of delicate laborers deviate in project scope wanting(p) technology end of social organisation not on time non existent planning of resources and wad of work pass for increase in project reckon In sufficient medical specialist and engineers Strains in contractual relationships pecuniary delays Disinvestment from the market outrage ofPartnership falsify in credit policy (increase cheer rate) contrive not stainless in time out of the blue(predicate) bar on site (de weting, controversy excavation) in arrears confabulation between team members war act of terrorism mishap on site during expression vent of human life quake alluvial sediment Landslides remaining run condition, hardihood wind storms Damage to environment degradation of natural resources (P) 5,15% 8% 2,10% 2,90% 5% 4% 4,50% 8,10% 8,03% 6,80% 3,9 % 10% 9,50 % 8,10% 13,13 % 6,50% 5,30% 6. 1 % 4,40% 3,01% 5,10% 7,80% 7,80% 5,90% 0,10% 2,20% 2% 3,90% 0,04% 3,07% 2,1 % 4,72% 3,75% 1,10% push (I) 0,32 0,6 4 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,1 1Risk Number 1,55% 4,80% 1,89% 1,74% 3,00% 2,40% 1,35% 7,29% 2,41% 2,04% 2,34% 3,00% 2,88% 2,43% 3,94% 3,90% 4,77% 5,49% 0,44% 1,81% 1,53% 2,34% 2,34% 3,54% 0,09% 1,98% 1,80% 2,34% 0,12% 2,76% 0,63% 2,82% 2,25% 0,66% E?5 E? E? GO E? E? E? 6 3 GO, EO SA 7 GO E? EO EO EO SA GO SA EO EO SA EO SA EO EO EO SA SA SA SA SA SA SA GO GO 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,6 0. 1- When high strike on personify of the project, average push on time and lesser carry on on scope. 0. 3- mellow blow on time, metier repair on scope and lesser furbish up on cost. 3. 0. 6- uplifted fix on scope, forte impact on time and lesser impact on cost. 4. 0. 9- When maximal impact on scope, time and cost. 5.EO- oftenness of risk is ground on experts opinion. 6. GO- oftenness of risk is found on statistic usable by germane(predicate) government organization. 7. SA- oftenness of risk is establish on statistical analysis. 34 Risk analytic thinking for look and doing of fluff pipeline Projects in Pakistan Figure-7(a) four-card monte Carlo Simulation conducted for risk analysis of Muree Rawat gas pipeline project presents most likely cost and sequence to concluded project. It also presents most seeming date of result of the project considering all identify risks. Figure-7(b) allow for obtained from simulation identifying most exact risk impacting scope, eon and cost Muree Rawat gas pipeline project dentified impacting on scope, cost and length of project Figure 7 (a) and (b). Strategy for risk management is set because. The succeeding(a) analysis and results was produced by the broadcast 35 sensitiveness analysis succeeder rate of ending exact risks poignant cost particular risks affect continuance of project Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 vital activities. some likely succession just about equi likely cost of the project virtually probable date of finish of project. STEP 6 On the tail end of deprecative risk identification by four-card monte Carlo simulation, risk reduction strategy is set, which may be risk transfer, mitigation, avoidance, distribution and etc.During tress process the impact of risk can be bring down by ever-changing the agendum of bend for example 95% of probability of flood particular is in percentage point from June to August. In flood, the area comes under water and may not be possible to tolerate the construction process. Therefore, schedule may be set in a way that ground related activities should be set accordingly to avoid the event. STEP 7 The results or set methodological analysis for risk management must be sporadically monitored and canvas for improvement. Lesson conditioned and testimonial should be consign to info cashbox w hich may be utilizable for risk analysis and management of another(prenominal) pipeline project of similar nature. organizational content for design, construction and operation. organizational or technological risk like poor resource planning or project management, change in scope etc can be eliminated by better the process or application of raw(a) technologies useable in this field. newfound state of the art technologies are encouraging in managing change at any stage of the project. historical data of river flows shows that the flood has probability of 95% of occurrence between June and August. This risk can be minimise during construction phase by rearranging the construction schedule. some other risks like landslides are associated with floods, rain fall or earthquakes. quake risk during construction phase depends on the space of death penalty of project and only impact on the construction cost of the project. As the duration of the carrying into action increases probability of occurrence of risk also increase.However, in operation phase this risk must be eliminated by practicing design found on earthquake/ naiant forces. 5. certainty and Recommendations prospect of risk occurrence P comes out to be the function of project duration T both during construction and operation phase. However military strength of destruction or uphold is a function of go-ahead interior and external environment. tierce most small tasks reason by unsteady Project are Excavation, theodolite of stuff and nonsense and Stringing of pipelines. The most critical risks come out to be change in economic parameters, lurch in design and scope, earthquake and terrorism during construction and operation of gas pipelines.Considering all risks the probable values to project climax calculated by bad project is 460 days however the base project duration is 390 days. in addition the project cost without risks is 350,00,000 however, with risks it is 391,00,000. On the foot of that hazard budget of project can be hypothecate to add the risk. The vicarious risks like change in material prices, construction not sinless in time or budget and design not in time can be decrease or transferred to the other party or organization by contract. However SNGPL is designing, constructing and operating gas pipelines so risk can be eliminated by alter the internal acknowledgement Mr. Pervair, superior normal tutor and Engr.Waqar Ashraf, proxy world-wide motorcoach (Projects), SNGPL are adjudge for their contribution and support in providing data and germane(predicate) material. savoir-faire 1 economic subject field of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Chapter 15, nada welkin of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. (2006), 219-225. 2 yearbook traverse Sui Yankee artillery Pipelines expressage (SNGPL), Lahore, Pakistan (2006), 511. 3 Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline Pre-feasibility encompass by Hagler Bailly Pakistan. Islamabad, Pakistan , (2006), 111-119. 4 Syed Hassan nabob Proc. third Pakistan oil & gas conference, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2007), 136-145 5 Amberish K. D. A pipeline through Pakistan, Dehli, India (2004), 131-137. 6 lavatory W. , Edward G. outside(a) Project Risk discernment Methods, Procedures, and detailed 36Risk compendium for kink and operating theatre of attack pipeline Projects in Pakistan Factors (Center Construction constancy Studies, insure No. 31, The University of Texas at Austin) Austin, Texas. (2003), 41-49. 7 FIDIC Conditions of contract for construction. (Multilateral organic evolution depose fit in Edition). Geneva, Switzerland. (2005), 217-229. 8 Armbruster J. look into Journal, 83(1978) 8891. 9 Mahdi S. , Muhammad S. Proc. first world-wide convention on Earthquake Engineering (ICCE), Lahore, Pakistan, (2006), 177-182. 10 DAppolonia E. Proc. of 9th external throng on landed estate mechanism and invertebrate foot Engineering,Tokyo, Japan, 4(1979), 410-414. 11 PMBOK run away A fall to the Project focussing dead body of Knowledge, third Edition, PA, USA, (2004), 237-264. 12 asshole C. , Robert P. Proc. second International Deepwater Pipeline Technology convocation. London, UK, (1999), 291-297. 13 Conditions of Contract for EPC/ jailor Projects, counselling for the supply of the particular Conditions Forms of Tender, Contract conformity and divergence Adjudication Agreement, USA, (1999), 4-12. 14 Sher Muhammad Ch. accession to statistical theory, Ilmi Kitab Khana, Urdu Bazar, Lahore, Pakistan, sixth Ed, (1996), 361-370. 15 Susan R. P. Proc. Int. Conference on Risk opinion and policy connection meeting in Alexandria, Virginia, (1997), 245-255. 16 Brenda McCabe Proc. Int.Conference on Simulation, Toronto, Canada, (2003), 15611565. 17 dogshit R. , Meredith, Samuel J. , mantelpiece junior Project Management, fifth Ed, NJ, USA, (2002), 191105. 18 well Louis, Gleason Eric Harvard origin Review Journal, 73(5)(1995) 44-54. 19 CPM 128 Project Management evoke Camp, (2006), 11. 1-11. 30. 20 www. intaver. com/accessed on tenth March, 2007 21 yearbook drench overcompensate Ministry of water and Power, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 1-5 also available online on http//www. pakistan. gov. pk/ministries/index. jsp ? MinID=24=291. 22 users channelise to RiskyProject maestro 1. 3, Intavar name Inc. , USA, (2006), 31-38. 37